The military relationship between the United States and Canada has long been shaped by geography, common defense interests, and a foundation of trust. As of the end of 2024, cooperation between the two countries remains extensive and active, but with Donald Trump returning for a second presidential term, the future of that cooperation faces possible adjustments. Understanding where things stand today provides a foundation for analyzing what might shift in the years ahead.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics conducted a detailed modeling study in April 2025 to assess the revenue and macroeconomic impacts of tariff increases proposed by President Donald Trump during his second term. The study evaluated hypothetical across-the-board tariff hikes on all US goods imports at three levels: 10, 15, and 20 percentage points. Two global scenarios were considered for each case—one where no retaliation occurs and another where all US trading partners respond in kind by imposing reciprocal tariffs on US exports.
Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2% in February 2025, offsetting part of the 0.4% increase recorded in January. The drop was concentrated in the goods-producing sector, which shrank by 0.6%. The largest contributor to this contraction was the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector, which fell by 2.5%. Within this category, oil and gas extraction declined by 2.8%, with oil sands extraction down by 3.8%. This marked the most significant monthly decline in the sector since January 2024. The downturn was linked to adverse weather conditions and operational disruptions, including a tanker collision at a transshipment terminal off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Based on a recent survey by the Bank of Canada in the first quarter of 2025, financial market participants signaled a shift toward a more cautious view of Canada’s economic growth trajectory. The median projection for real gross domestic product growth by the end of the year has been adjusted down to 1.0 percent. Expectations for 2026 show a modest increase to 1.7 percent, indicating some recovery but remaining below long-term averages. These figures reflect a broad sentiment that economic momentum is likely to remain restrained in the near term.
The U.S. economy experienced a noticeable slowdown in the first quarter of 2025, with real gross domestic product (GDP) dropping by 0.3 percent on an annual basis. This marks a sharp contrast to the 2.4 percent growth seen in the final quarter of 2024. The change reflects a mix of factors that influenced economic activity from January through March. Imports rose significantly, which reduces GDP since they subtract from the total, while government spending also declined. On the brighter side, increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports helped soften the impact.This article is based upon information from the Bureau of Economic Analysis press release for the first quarter of 2025.
Concerns about the United States drifting toward authoritarianism have gained traction among scholars, political analysts, and the public, particularly in light of recent political developments. While the U.S. remains a constitutional democracy with institutional checks, certain trends—executive overreach, attacks on democratic norms, and efforts to manipulate electoral processes—have raised alarms about democratic erosion or a potential shift toward “competitive authoritarianism,” where elections persist but are skewed to favor incumbents.
In March 2025, Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s 24th Prime Minister, succeeding Justin Trudeau. Carney, a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, entered politics with a reputation for economic expertise. His leadership of the Liberal Party began with a decisive victory in the party’s leadership race, where he secured over 85% of the vote. Shortly thereafter, he called a federal election, leading the Liberals to a fourth consecutive term in government, albeit with a minority in the House of Commons.
The RAND study Construction Apprenticeships Will Fail to Meet Projected Needs, Exacerbating Housing Crisis describes a significant mismatch between the United States’ booming construction demand and its available workforce. After the COVID-19 pandemic, construction spending surged, fueled by delayed residential projects, rising housing demand, and major federal legislation such as the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act.
In recent years, national leaders have turned to import duties to protect domestic producers from foreign competition. That approach gained prominence when major economies, notably the United States and China, imposed higher tariffs on steel, aluminum and a broad array of industrial inputs. The dispute spread beyond raw materials to finished goods such as electronics, automobiles and agricultural products. As barriers rose, businesses confronted uncertainty about costs and market access, prompting governments to negotiate with trading partners or threaten further measures.
Catastrophic disclosure refers to the release of information that could lead to widespread social, political, economic, or psychological upheaval. This concept is often discussed in the context of government secrets, extraterrestrial life, global security threats, and suppressed scientific discoveries. The idea is that some revelations could disrupt the foundation of societal stability, leading to unpredictable and potentially destructive consequences.
