International arrivals to the U.S. fell more than 10% in March 2025 compared to the previous year, though April showed signs of recovery, particularly around holidays like Easter. This suggests some seasonal influence, but the overall trend points to deeper issues, including political tensions under the Trump administration and economic policies like tariffs.
The decline is hitting hard, with projections estimating a loss of up to $18 billion in tourism revenue for 2025. This affects hotels, airlines, and local businesses, especially in tourist hotspots like New York and Florida. Canadians, a major visitor group, have reduced travel by significant margins, with car visits dropping 32% and air returns down 13.5% in March, impacting states where they spend over $20 billion annually.
Looking ahead, recovery seems distant, with some analyses suggesting international arrivals might not return to pre-decline levels until 2029. Ongoing policy debates, such as recent tariff announcements, could further deter visitors, particularly from affected regions like Canada and Europe.
International travel to the United States has been a vital component of the economy, contributing over $1.3 trillion annually and supporting 15 million jobs. However, 2025 has seen a marked decline, with official data releases for March showing a drop of over 10% in international arrivals compared to the same month in 2024. While April figures indicated a partial recovery, particularly during holiday periods, the overall trend suggests deeper, systemic issues at play.
The decline can be attributed to several interconnected factors, primarily political and economic in nature, with social perceptions also playing a role.
The reelection of Donald Trump in 2024 has significantly altered international relations, influencing travel patterns. His administration’s “America First” stance, characterized by aggressive tariffs and combative rhetoric, has strained ties with key allies. For instance, the imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods, coupled with comments about integrating Canada as the 51st state, has led to a notable boycott by Canadian travelers. Similarly, European nations have expressed concerns over U.S. policies, contributing to hesitancy among their citizens to visit.
Economic policies, particularly trade wars, have exacerbated the situation. Countries like Germany, where economic growth has stalled due to U.S. trade policies, are less inclined to send tourists to America. Currency fluctuations have also played a role, with the strong U.S. dollar making travel more expensive for some nationalities. For example, while Japanese tourism saw an 11% increase in summer bookings compared to 2024, South Korea experienced a 5% decline, reflecting varied economic pressures.
Heightened border security and immigration enforcement have contributed to a perception that the U.S. is less welcoming to international visitors. Reports of detentions and deportations, even of tourists, have spread fear and uncertainty. This has been compounded by travel advisories from some countries warning their citizens about potential risks associated with visiting the U.S. For instance, the EU issuing burner phones for officials traveling to the U.S. highlights the level of concern.
The decline in international travel is already having tangible economic repercussions, with effects felt across multiple sectors.
Tourism Economics, a research firm, revised its forecast in February 2025, expecting inbound travel to decline by 5.5% for the year, down from an earlier projection of 9% growth. This shift is equivalent to an $18 billion drop in spending, a significant blow given tourism’s economic weight. If the trend continues at the current rate, some projections suggest losses could reach $90 billion when combined with reduced travel and U.S. product boycotts.
The hospitality industry, including hotels and restaurants, is particularly hard-hit, with hotel demand projected to decline by 0.8% in 2025. Airlines are also struggling, with reduced bookings from international markets, especially from Canada and Europe. Retail sectors that rely on tourist spending, such as souvenir shops and attractions, are experiencing a downturn. Local economies in tourist-heavy areas like New York, Florida, and California are especially vulnerable, as they depend heavily on international visitors.
The impact varies by region, with some areas more affected than others. Below is a table summarizing key regional and country-specific declines as of March 2025:
| Region/Country | Decline in Visitors (March 2025 vs. 2024) | Notes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada (Car Visits) | -32% | Contributes over $20 billion annually | OMT |
| Canada (Air Returns) | -13.5% | Significant economic impact on border states | OMT |
| Western Europe | -17% | Partial recovery in April due to holidays | NYT |
| Central America | -24% | Includes key markets like Mexico | OMT |
| Caribbean | -26% | Affects Florida and cruise industries | OMT |
| Colombia | -33% | Sharp decline, economic ties strained | OMT |
| Germany | -28% | Economic slowdown due to trade policies | OMT |
| Spain | -25% | Reflects broader European hesitancy | OMT |
| Mexico (Air Arrivals) | -17% | Land arrival data pending | OMT |
Canada stands out as a major concern, with 20 million annual visits contributing significantly to states like Arizona and California. The boycott, driven by U.S. tariffs and political rhetoric, has led to a 21% drop in summer ticket sales compared to 2024. Border crossings, such as Niagara Falls and Vancouver-Seattle, saw declines of 42% and 48% respectively in March, highlighting the severity.
If current policies persist, the decline in tourism is likely to continue or worsen. The “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, may further alienate potential visitors from affected countries, particularly Canada and Europe. Additionally, general uncertainty has led to shorter booking windows, with travel bookings now averaging 8.5 weeks compared to 9.5 weeks in previous years, indicating hesitancy among potential visitors.
Analysts, including Oxford Economics, project that full recovery of international arrivals to pre-decline levels might not occur until 2029, indicating a prolonged period of reduced tourism. This sustained low tourism could have lasting impacts on the U.S. economy, affecting job markets, local businesses, and even international relations. The negative sentiment toward the U.S. as a travel destination, driven by policy-related fears and perceived unwelcomeness, may take years to reverse, even with policy changes.
The drop in international travel to the United States in 2025 is a multifaceted issue, driven by political tensions, economic policies, and concerns over safety and welcome. The economic impact is already significant, with projected losses of up to $18 billion and widespread effects across sectors like hospitality, aviation, and retail. Regionally, Canada and Latin America have been particularly affected, while Europe shows mixed trends, with some recovery in holiday periods. Looking forward, the situation is precarious, with potential for further decline if current policies continue. The U.S. faces a challenging path to recovery, with long-term implications that could reshape its position in the global tourism landscape. Addressing these issues will require a balanced approach to policy-making that considers both economic stability and international relations.
